Saturday, November 30, 2024
Week 48 of 2024 • Q4
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📊 Day at a Glance
- 🗓️ Day: 335 of 2024 (92%)
- 📅 Week: 48 of 52
- 📊 Quarter Progress: 61 of 92 (66%)
- 🎯 Days until EOY: 30
- 🔄 Created at: 12:23 PM
📰 AI News
📝 Daily Reflections
Sat, 11/30/2024, 12:23
Ok
It’s beginning
I started telling people about what I’m planning to do, and each one of them has said “That makes sense and sounds like a good idea please do that.”
So I guess I’m giving myself permission through other people? I hate that I have to do that, but my psyche won’t let me do anything if someone I care about isn’t directly benfitting externally.
I can’t be the someone.
It’s like this TikTok right here:
https://www.tiktok.com/@americanbaron/video/7439157701382376735
It’s perfectly ok to my brain to work my body and mind to the bone for others, but to pur my own self some tea and fill my own cup???? When someone else has less than me???
That’s just how my mind works. I don’t deserve it unless someone else says I do. I can’t decide for myself that I just deserve to have some tea. I can’t give myself permission to just fill my own vessel because I wnat to. I have to be aligned with someone like Lydia or Caroline who I am helping or associated with or otherwise simply adding value to their life. If I’m not adding value…then I’m taking away from what might have already been there. I’m devaluing the energy with my disgusting lack of…whatever
That’s how my mind perceives it anyway.
Do I feel that way about others??????? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
No
I feel like I want to work myself to the bone and then grind my bones into paste to compensate for the fact that I even have them at all, and then turn myself into a fine powder and drift around adding some kind of value, energy, whatever to the space.
But that’s not how I’m meant to live. That’s not how any of us are meant to live. We’re meant to help one another of course, and we’re meant to make things good and better, but I get caught up with narcissists who seek to use me for their gain, and who want to put a bunch of stuff on me to make me beholden to them, and then blame me for it when things go wrong even though it’s their fucking fault too and they take no accountability and they blame everyone but themselves.
I’m going to attract people like that again with my natural self and I don’t have the time or the energy to fend them off. I have to simply use the tools available to make things work for ME and tell everyone else to fuck off. That’s literally the only way. That’s the only solution. I have to simply be more prickly, or a tleast nonreactive so they can simply bounce off and not have power over me.
I want to be safe. That’s all I want. To feel safe. YouTube does NOT make me feel safe. It makes me feel scared, and in danger.
But I don’t have another choice. I’ve chosen all of them lol. I’ve already been down every other rabbit hole I can muster and literally NONE of them work.
If there can be people on YouTube making videos about how they do planning as a neurodivergent mom, then I can make videos about how I’m preparing for superintelligence as a neurodivergent man.
I can do this. I can make YouTube my final career.
I’m fucking TERRIFIED of what people will say. I’m more terrified that they won’t say anything, and I’ll just have to sit there and watch all my time and effort be ignored.
I know that won’t happen, but I am extremely scared it might.
I know it won’t. But that doesn’t stop my monkey brain from going
“You have been hurt here many times before. Go where you won’t be hurt. Rest. Recover. Never try again. Stay out of the light and hide till you die of old age.
That’s NOT what I’m doing. Fuck that.
I’m going to stand tall and rise up for what I believe in and crystalize myself forever as the AI tech guy musician philosopher who saw what was coming and started helping people prepare for it. Not doomeristic, data-based with a little bit of conjecture and anecdotal evidence from people’s feelings and shared insights online.
The journey ahead of me is so obvious. It’s almost silly how straightforward it really is.
Just make content. About everything. All the time. Every day.
Simply document and observe, and then ask questions.
Be open-minded and open-hearted and let people be themselves, but observe and document how you feel about it, how the world makes you feel.
People will relate, but be careful what you wish for. You’ll find it. Or more importantly, it will find YOU.
Sat, 11/30/2024, 12:37
When will Artificial Superintelligence arrive?
The arrival of artificial superintelligence (ASI) is a topic of intense debate among AI experts and researchers, with predictions varying widely. However, based on recent surveys and expert opinions, there are some key timeframes to consider:
Near-Term Predictions (2020s-2030s)
Some AI leaders and entrepreneurs have made optimistic predictions for ASI arrival in the near future:
- Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, suggested in 2024 that superintelligence could be possible “in a few thousand days” (roughly 5-14 years)[5][6].
- Elon Musk expects an AI smarter than humans by 2026[4].
- Ray Kurzweil, known for his technological predictions, updated his estimate in 2024 to 2032[4].
Mid-Term Predictions (2040s-2050s)
Several surveys of AI researchers point to a slightly later timeframe:
- A 2022 survey of 738 AI experts estimated a 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence by 2059[4].
- In a 2017 survey of 352 AI experts, the median estimate for AGI was 2060[4].
- The consensus view in the 2010s was that AGI would take around 50 years to develop[4].
Long-Term and Skeptical Views
Some experts believe ASI development will take longer or may never occur:
- In a 2019 survey, 34% of participants predicted ASI after 2060, while 21% believed it would never happen[4].
- Yann LeCun, Meta’s Chief AI Scientist, stated in 2023 that superintelligent AI is still decades away[5].
Factors Influencing Predictions
The wide range of estimates reflects the uncertainty surrounding ASI development. Key factors include:
- Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have led some researchers to update their predictions to earlier dates[4].
- Geographical differences exist, with Asian respondents expecting AGI sooner than North American counterparts[4].
- The definition of superintelligence and the metrics for measuring it remain debated topics.
While the exact timing of ASI arrival remains uncertain, most experts agree that continued progress in AI capabilities is likely to bring significant changes to society and the economy in the coming decades.
Citations: [1] https://sustensis.co.uk/evidence-for-maturing-superintelligence-being-quite-near/ [2] https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1b9y3u6/artificial_superintelligence_arrival_predicted_by/ [3] https://futurism.com/artificial-superintelligence-agi-2027-goertzel [4] https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ [5] https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2024/tech-leaders-debate-timeline-impact-ai-superintelligence/ [6] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sam-altman-predicts-superintelligence-2033-bakingai-lv2pc [7] https://fortune.com/2024/09/24/sam-altman-ai-superintelligence/
Example Videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KObyc70Y7bI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfMQ7hzyFW4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWd41KqCdFc&t=929s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjGmTDKbHZY&t=919s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPLImB-I71w&t=21s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o2dkk4Q-RU
Sat, 11/30/2024, 13:30
Ok I think I’m finally settling into this new identity. I think I’m finally ok with being on camera, being the subject is great, but I want to be more like your guide or your host into the world.
That last video from Shelby Church is the one man. That’s the thing. That’s the inspiration. I can do literally exactly the same type of content, but masculine, and I’ll be 100% totally and completely FINE.
Let’s. Fucking. Do This.
Up, up, and away!
Sat, 11/30/2024, 14:04
There’s two types of content I want to make - expressive content, and introspective.
Both can be video essays.
This is my TED talk, my Icarus moment, my Prometheus.
Daily. Video. Essays. Without. Fail.
From now on, even if it’s just a completely SHITTY video with the world’s WORST quality, it doesn’t matter because ALL I’m trying to do is publish ONE video essay a day for the rest of time (till ASI appears).
How???
Take my daily notes as I browse the Internet, put them into ChatGPT or Claude, maybe even make a Claude Projects about it, and then simply write every fucking day about what I’m seeing happen in the world, how, and why, and then cite my sources, edit some shit together, slap some b-roll on top of it, and try to get the whole process down to 2 hours total writing, recording, and editing.
The more I practice, the better I’ll get.
The more I learn about this process, the BETTER I’ll GET.
JUST. FUCKING. DO IT.
What are you really afraid of?
Sat, 11/30/2024, 14:08
Don’t answer that lol.
Sat, 11/30/2024, 14:08
Since I’m going to be doing video essays, Descript is the tool of choice for me for making content.
I can write everything I want to say, then I can record it in one take, with lots of redos and mistakes. Descript makes it incredibly easy to cut out the junk and get right to the good stuff.
From there I can export the quickly and easily chopped down raw video and import it into CapCut, where I can do all the other editing and add b-roll, overlays, infographics, screengrabs, effects, and more.
Content Production System
1 > Browse the web for trending topics 2 > Grab stuff as I go along and drop it into Buffer (add it to the Buffer queue) 3 > Write my important essays on my little topics 4 > Daily, pick an essay from my backlog, and record a video of myself reading it 5 > Take the raw and edit it for clarity and conciseness in Descript 6 > Take the edited raw and import it and all other collected assets into a CapCut project 7 > Edit the video in CapCut 8 > Make short-form videos ABOUT the video I’m editing to build hype and gain valuable feedback 9 > Finalize and Schedule the video to be published in YouTube Studio 10 > ???
🐾 Today’s Pokémon
Rayquaza (#384)
- Type(s): dragon, flying
- Abilities: air-lock
- Stats: hp: 105, attack: 150, defense: 90, special-attack: 150, special-defense: 90, speed: 95
“Gotta catch ‘em all!” — Pokémon Trainer
🤖 GPT Thoughts
“If this works it’s gonna be so cool!” Please work…
11/30/2024, 12:23:30 PM💭 Prompt: “What insights can you provide about my day?”
Based on your reflections from yesterday and the progress you’ve made in embracing your identity as a YouTuber, one insightful takeaway is the power of intentional focus in your creative endeavors.
You’ve highlighted a shift in mindset from viewing each post as a standalone artistic expression to recognizing the value of scaling your content production. This transition is significant and aligns with your goals of efficiency and clarity. As you continue to build your presence on YouTube, consider how each piece of content can not only reflect your unique voice but also contribute to a broader narrative or mission that resonates with your audience.
One way to enhance this intentional focus is by establishing a clear content strategy that aligns with your passions—like coffee and technology. By defining key themes or topics, you can create a cohesive body of work that not only engages viewers but also reinforces your brand identity.
Moreover, integrating audience feedback into your creative process will allow you to refine your content in a way that truly meets their needs and interests. Engaging with your community through interactive elements, as suggested in your previous reflections, can foster deeper connections and enhance the relevancy of your contributions.
In summary, as you navigate this exciting pathway, keep in mind that balancing creativity with a structured approach can lead to sustained personal growth and a more impactful presence in the digital space. This moment is your canvas—paint it with intention and authenticity!
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daily-note Saturday week-48 q4